The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 102.6 in April from a downwardly revised 99.4 in March, breaking a three-month declining streak. The increase was driven primarily by an improvement in the Expectations Index, which measures consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, while the Present Situation Index — based on assessments of current conditions — also moved up.
The labor market component was the standout. The share of consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' rose to 36.3% from 34.9%, while the share saying jobs are 'hard to get' fell to 13.4% from 14.7%. The resulting 'labor differential' — a measure that has historically tracked the unemployment rate closely — improved to 22.9 from 20.2, suggesting that consumers' on-the-ground experience of the job market is more favorable than the BLS's modest uptick in unemployment would imply.
Income expectations also improved. The share of respondents expecting their income to increase over the next six months rose to 17.5% from 15.4%, while the share expecting a decrease fell to 13.8% from 14.6%. The improvement was concentrated among households earning under $75,000 — a group that has felt the cumulative pinch of three years of elevated prices most acutely.
Inflation expectations, meanwhile, edged lower. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.1% from 5.4%. While that is still well above the Fed's 2% target, the trend has been steadily lower throughout 2025 and 2026, and the gap between expectations and realized inflation has been narrowing — generally a positive sign for the Fed.
Plans to purchase major durables were mixed. Automobile purchase intentions ticked up modestly, while plans to buy a home edged down — reflecting the impact of mortgage rates near 7%. Vacation plans, a useful proxy for discretionary services spending, rose to a six-month high.
By demographic, confidence improved across age groups but was strongest among consumers under 35 and consumers earning over $125,000. Confidence among those aged 35 to 54 — the prime working-age cohort that drives most discretionary spending — also improved but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Regionally, the Mountain West and South Atlantic posted the largest gains.
The Conference Board survey is one of two major confidence indicators, the other being the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, which is reported twice a month. The two measures often diverge — the Conference Board survey weights labor market conditions more heavily, while the Michigan survey weights inflation more heavily — and right now they are sending different signals, with Michigan running closer to its post-pandemic lows.
For employers and recruiters, the labor market component of the Conference Board survey is one of the better real-time indicators of how candidates feel about their options. The improvement in 'jobs plentiful' and the recovery in income expectations suggest that the rebalancing of the labor market that began in 2023 has not yet tipped into outright weakness — and that workers may once again be willing to entertain new opportunities after a year of unusual stickiness.